This morning, two unknown gunmen fired two shots into Shokri Belaid and sped away. While we still know little, the basic facts are clear. Belaid, while not a hugely powerful politician, had been an active voice opposing the current Islamist-dominated government, and had recently been subject to harassment by Ennadha supporters, reportedly including death threats. After confirmation of his death at a Tunis hospital, thousands of people gathered on Avenue Bourguiba, the main boulevard in downtown Tunis. Protesters railed against the government, holding them responsible for Belaid's death and demanding the resignation of the Minster of Interior and others. Around 2:30 in the afternoon, the police took action to disperse the crowd, firing tear gas and reportedly clubbing some of the demonstrators. The police were able to empty the street and blocked access to it. In several cities and towns around the country, Ennahda offices were attacked, as were the offices of some local officials.
This may be the worst thing that could have happened here. For all the disagreements and stumbles that the political process has seen in the last two years, political violence of this sort has not been an issue. Now, an opposition leader has been assassinated, and no matter who ends up being held responsible, tensions between the secular left and the Islamist right will increase. While I personally doubt that Ennahda had any role to play in the assassination, at least at any important level, it's a safe bet that whoever committed this act is sympathetic to some of the Islamist forces Belaid had opposed. In Tunisia, no matter what the evidence shows, Ennahda is going to be held responsible by most of the secular left. The fact that security forces responded to today's demonstrations just as back in the Ben Ali days can only make things worse.
The best-case scenario is that the fragmented political actors in power in Tunisia somehow band together to keep the constitution-drafting process afloat and work to prevent further violence. Cooperation, however, was hard to come by before this morning, and is even more difficult to envision now. The Islamist prime minister tonight announced the creation of a new technocratic, non-partisan cabinet to replace the old one dominated by Ennahda. Perhaps this is a step in the right direction, but it could also be seen as Ennadha trying to remove its much-criticized ministers from the spotlight and hold new elections as quickly as possible. Polls show that with each passing month their support decreases and that of the secular left solidifies, meaning that Ennahda wants a new vote to happen while they still have a chance to remain in power.
Unfortunately, one can easily imagine this getting worse. There will certainly be suspicion here about the role played by outside actors like those active in neighboring Algeria. Perhaps it is meant to be a lesson to countries undergoing political transitions in the Arab world - secular politicians loudly criticizing the role of Islam in government will not be tolerated. If indeed this is somehow linked to Al Qaeda or something like it, what seemed a success story of transitioning to a liberal democracy (at least compared to Egypt) could suddenly become much more complicated.
These next weeks and months in Tunisia will be pivotal. The investigation into who killed Belaid must be seen as objective, and the response of political party leaders to this crisis must be as unified as possible. The government must try to prevent any further acts of violence while at the same time assuring that the police and military respect the rights Tunisians fought for in 2011. If Tunisia can weather this storm, it could prove a beacon of success and shining example for other Arab countries undergoing conflict and transition. If not, prepare for a second Tunisian revolution.
No comments:
Post a Comment